In February 2022, Russia led a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Today, March 2026, the war continues.
What hasn't changed? Russian still has control of about twenty percent of Ukraine's territory. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, and Ukraine deploys drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military sites.
However as we know, one geopolitical conflict has a multitude of indirect consequences. An example of this is the current U.S.-Israel war on Iran, which is expected to impact the projection of the Russia-Ukraine war. In fact, in a BBC article covered an interview with Zelensky, "Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine will face a deficit of missiles it is using to fight Russia due to the war in the Middle East." Zelensky also stated that "Russia's Vladimir Putin wanted a long war between the US, Israel and Iran because it would weaken Kyiv, with US resources being directed elsewhere."
So when/how will the war in Ukraine end? The Chatham House published a briefing paper covering the four possible scenarios of the war's outcome. The first likely ending is a "long war;" in other words, the war continues and "tests each side's limits." Another likely outcome is a "frozen conflict," in which the conflict will continue but solely on the front line where it is now. The other two possible outcomes is that Ukraine wins or is defeated. If Ukraine establishes Victory the Chatham House hypothesizes "a Western policy shift on support that allows Ukraine to force Russia back to at least the demarcation line of 23 February 2022." On the other hand, if Russia claims victory, it is likely Ukraine accepts "Russian terms of surrender (change of government, demilitarization, neutrality) and territorial losses."
Furthermore, the likelihood of which scenario will come to fruition depends on three factors which the Catham House outlined. The first is "the capacity and willingness of Ukraine’s Western allies to sustain financial and military support for the country and provide long-term security
guarantees." Due to the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, the capacity of military support from countries such as the U.S. are expected to decreased significantly. The second factor is "Ukraine’s ability to maintain popular support for the continuing war while mobilizing and deploying forces in sufficient quantities." Given that it is the fourth year of conflict in Ukraine, popular support for the country has diminished, as other current news seems to be enticing the public eye more than this long-lasting conflict. Lastly, the third factor is "the continued absence of opposition to the war on the part of elites and society at large."
What do you think will happen? Is this an endless war? Or is it bound to end? If so... how will it end?
